Overview
Xerberus is a forecasting club where risk professionals predict the rare failures behind the biggest losses in crypto, such as a stablecoin that loses its peg or a bridge that gets drained1. Members estimate how many failures of each type this year and next will bring. Xerberus scores those estimates against what happens, and each league of up to ten forecasters pools them into one shared number per category, which it calls the forward view1.
The club is aimed at people who manage or insure crypto funds, along with builders and experienced DeFi users, and membership is by application1. Xerberus was first built around the idea of pooling expert forecasts on risk, but the team says it spent years on risk ratings and kept putting that off, so it relaunched the project to start with the pooled forecast2. The Xerberus Terminal, the web app where members set their forecasts, is labelled a beta product3. On Cardano, the project's XER token exists as a native asset, meaning a token issued directly on the blockchain4. Xerberus is also one of five members of an oversight committee that checks key administrative actions on Cardano treasury funds paid out through Intersect's smart-contract framework (code that runs on the blockchain)5.
Key Features
- Forecast through your own AI assistant. Each member's AI agent submits forecasts over MCP (Model Context Protocol, a standard way for AI assistants to connect to outside tools), giving one count per failure category for this year and next1.
- Scores settled by real events. Forecasts are checked against the club's incident record, a list of past failures that are each dated and classified. Seasons run quarterly and the year ends with an annual table and prizes1.
- A pooled view of the year ahead. Leagues of up to ten forecasters combine their numbers into one figure per category, and Xerberus sends that forward view back to each member's agent1.
- Private forecasts, public standings. The Xerberus leaderboard shows which categories each forecaster has covered but never the forecast values, and members can keep their profiles private6.
- Browse past failures. The incident register in the Terminal lists each recorded failure with its date, what failed, the kind of failure, and the money lost7.
What to Expect
The homepage walks through the forecasting rules and ends with a membership application. The form asks for your name, email, the risk topic that interests you most, and a public Ethereum address used as your game identifier1. Forecasts are set in the Terminal's Forecasting Club, which asks forecasters to hold 1,000,000 XER for a seat and checks it when you connect a wallet3. Membership also brings invitations to the dinners of a non-profit members' club that stands behind the protocol1.
Analysts and developers can also use the rating side of Xerberus. The Tail Risk page scores rated tokens and DeFi pools on how well their safeguards match the failures that caused past losses8. A Risk MCP and a command-line tool bring those ratings into AI assistants such as Claude, Codex, or Cursor once you create an account and get an access key9. The documentation explains how the ratings are built and states that Xerberus is never paid by the projects it rates10.
Other Cardano projects draw on that work. GeroWallet, a Cardano wallet, shows Xerberus ratings to give context on unfamiliar tokens11. Moneta, which issues the USDM stablecoin, lists Xerberus as an independent partner that monitors USDM transactions on the blockchain12.
